Retail Strategy

Can You Measure a Store Like a Marketing Channel?

Can You Measure a Store Like a Marketing Channel? 1920 1080 ASG

Every other acquisition channel reports what a customer costs. Stores can too. Most brands are missing two things first, and neither one is a sensor.

Somewhere in your building, paid search reports its cost per customer to the dollar. The store program can spend ten times as much and report comp sales and a feeling. When the two meet in a budget review, the feeling loses. Stores are not the weaker channel in that meeting. They are the unread one.

The industry conversation about measuring experience picked up this summer. The Robin Report ran the case, and our design studio wrote about which store moments deserve the attention. This piece is the operating half: the method itself, and what it takes to run inside a real organization.

What is Design CAC?

Every brand already calculates what a customer costs through paid channels. Design CAC runs the same formula on the store. The annualized read: the attributable design and construction investment for a location, annualized, divided by the incremental net new customers it acquires over 52 weeks, read against the marketing channel CAC you already report for the same period. It puts store investment in the one currency every budget meeting respects. The comparison also runs conservative, because most brands never quantify a location’s total omni lift, the traffic and sales it creates outside its own walls. The store walks into that reading undercounted and holds its own anyway.

The research says the formula will not embarrass the stores. In a Journal of Marketing field study published in 2014, sales to new customers rose 43 to 44 percent after a major remodel against 7 to 10 percent for existing customers, measured against control stores, and the new customer effect held for a year. The study’s authors framed remodeling as a marketing investment on par with advertising.

The effect also reaches past the four walls. In ICSC’s research across 804 store openings and closings, a new store lifted total brand web traffic by an average of 37 percent, and the follow-up spend study found a new store lifts online sales in its own trade area by 6.9 percent in the first 13 weeks. Read those numbers for what they measure: traffic and sales lift, not customer counts. They prove the reach; the customer arithmetic still comes from the identification work below. And the effect runs in both directions. In the same research, closing a store cut trade area online sales by 11.5 percent, and apparel dropped 19.4 percent after a closure. The store’s contribution is never clearer than in the hole a closing leaves. Store spend does not only buy store revenue.

The metric even has an institutional name. PwC introduced Return on Experience in its 2019 Global Consumer Insights Survey of more than 21,000 consumers. The metric is established. Most brands still have no way to compute it. That gap is the work.

One more finding belongs in the open: a second Journal of Marketing field study, published in 2011, watched a remodeled fast food chain and found the overall effect losing strength after about six months, with average spending rising and then leveling off. Note what that study did not do: it never separated new customers from returning ones. The 2014 field experiments did, and the new customer effect held for the full year they measured. Read together, the decay is the strongest argument for the method, because the durable effect lives in new customers, the population most remodel programs never isolate. A program measured on averages will read its own decay as failure at the exact moment its acquisition engine is working.

Why can most brands not compute it?

Two requirements, and neither is a sensor. The first is identification: separating new customers from existing customers at store level, through loyalty identity or payment card matching. The 2014 field study could run because the retailers provided customer level transaction data. Without the equivalent, Design CAC stays a slide.

The second is cohort discipline. Three cohorts: recently renovated stores, newly built stores, and an untouched control group from the fleet. Two windows: a 13 week read matching the trade area research, and a 52 week read covering the persistence the field studies measured. The control group matters more than it looks. Transformation studies have caught existing customers migrating to nearby untouched stores, which a naive comparison misreads as loss.

What kills measurement programs?

The math rarely kills them. Ownership does. The pattern is familiar to anyone who has run stores: leadership adds a metric, store teams collect the counts and surveys, nobody is assigned to read them and no decision is wired to them, so after two quarters the teams learn the measuring was decoration. The next initiative pays for that lesson.

So the operating rule comes before the instrument. Every reading needs an owner and a decision it can change. If you cannot name both, do not buy the sensor.

Where do you start?

Where the data already exists. If a loyalty program or card matching can split new customers from existing, run one cohort comparison on your last remodel class and see what the stores have been doing quietly. If it cannot, that is finding number one, and it costs nothing to learn. On the floor, start with the two moments our design team wrote about, the fitting room and the cash wrap, and tie every reading to the outcome the moment was built to produce. Add zones only after someone owns the analysis.

A brand that can say what a store costs per customer acquired walks into the budget review with a different case entirely. The readout is buildable. Build it before the next capital plan gets argued from feel.

6 Trends That Will Shape Retail in 2019

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Predictions in retail the last few years have been grim. Experts have sworn retail Armageddon was upon us, and many touted the downfall of brick-and-mortar stores. However, recent quarterly statements from major retailers have been telling a different story. E-commerce has made a statement, but physical locations are evolving, not vanishing. 2018 has laid the foundation for the changing wave of retail, and these trends are sure to make a statement in 2019.


1. Data will reign

Consumer data is precious. Success in retail lies in smartly predicting consumer demand, and data is the key. Not only will data analytics boost sales, but it will offer personalize the shopping experience and help retailers understand customer behavior. This information will guide everything from marketing strategies to products and services, and data will continue to play a major role in all parts of retail.


2. Physical and digital will coexist

Brick-and-mortar locations are still standing, and despite the popularity of e-commerce platforms, online sales do not exceed in-store sales for the typical retailer. 2018 has demonstrated that waging a war between the two is not the path to success, and that communication between both methods of retail is paramount. Consumers want it all, and in 2019 the customer will be more than always right. The customer is an individual, and they’re shopping for an experience instead of a product.

3. Social commerce will take center stage

Platforms like Instagram and Snapchat are taking advantage of the audience that they captivate multiple times daily. Social commerce is leveraging social media platforms for both likes and purchases, and it’s a genius method of retail that will become more prominent in 2019. Social commerce buys in to the demand for consumer experience and interaction, while also offering goods and services that are incredibly convenient.


4. Click-and-collect services will emerge

In 2018, it was made clear that shipping was pivotal to consumers. If shipping wasn’t free or immediate, buyers weren’t interested. Retailers are expected to absorb the full costs of shipping and returns, and it’s hurting profit margins. To battle the rising shipping costs, click-and-collect services will emerge in 2019. The option to collect at stores will ease the burden retailers are facing and still offer consumers convenience with perks like curbside pickup.


5. Sustainability will be the norm

This trend gained traction in 2018, but it is guaranteed to hold even more weight in 2019. Consumers expect their products to be ethically sourced and their services to offer more than what can be purchased with dollars. Consumers want to know that a retailer is doing to reduce their footprint and if they support a specific cause. A retailer who hesitates to do more than increase their profit margins will see a decrease in consumer loyalty.


6. Omnichannel strategies will launch interactive customer experiences

The ultimate consumer experience is what every retailer is desperate to capture, and with technological advances and an omnichannel strategy, 2019 will offer new possibilities. Artificial intelligence, virtual reality, and augmented reality will become more than just buzzwords. They will exist in interactive aisles that communicate directly with individual consumers, blending all methods of browsing and purchasing. It’s a competitive market, and nothing but innovation in retail will be seen moving forward with an omnichannel approach.

Physical retail is not collapsing by any means, and despite the strength ecommerce has shown, this platform is not yet ready for a complete takeover. It’s unlikely that any online platform will be able to exist without a physical presence, and vice versa. The trends of 2019 forecast growth for the changing industry, all with consumers closely watching and waiting for the next creative retail experience.

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